Prediction-market indices

The market view of policy uncertainty

Aurelian publishes daily indices of U.S. policy and Federal Reserve rate uncertainty, computed from real-money contract prices on Kalshi and Polymarket

AURA-PUI · 1 JUL

92.26 −0.82%

AURA-FED · 1 JUL

41.60 bp +0.01 bp

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Indices

Two flagship indices, published daily

AURA-PUI 1 JUL 2026

Policy Uncertainty Index

5 policy domains · base 100 = April 2024

AURA-FED 1 JUL 2026

Fed Rate Uncertainty Index

41.60 bp +0.01 bp

3 horizons · distribution σ-bp

Policy domains

Five domains, one composite

Monetary Policy

Fed decisions, rate path, chair confirmations

38.1%

7 ct

Trade & Geopolitical

Treaties, sanctions, diplomatic events, conflict

31.4%

10 ct

Fiscal & Regulatory

Tax policy, budget, elections, administration

21.3%

17 ct

Macroeconomic

CPI, employment, GDP, recession probability

8.4%

1 ct

Sector-Specific

Industry-targeted policy, tariffs, regulation

0.8%

0 ct

Live basket weights as of 1 July 2026 · 35 contracts in scope

Methodology

How AURA is built

For each policy-relevant contract on Kalshi and Polymarket, AURA-PUI computes an uncertainty score. Scores are normalized across the basket and weighted to reflect contract size and quote tightness. Concentration rules cap how much any single domain or any single contract can contribute to the headline. AURA-FED extends the same logic to Federal Reserve rate contracts, published in basis points across Near-Term and Path horizons.

Inception

2024-04-20

Cadence

Daily, NY close

Source venues

Kalshi · Polymarket

Architecture

Two-layer PDS

Read the full methodology

Access

Public, research, and institutional data

Public

Daily CSV download

Full historical series. Updated each business day. No registration.

Research

Academic licensing

Replication-grade data with full methodology disclosures.

Institutional

Real-time feed

API access, intraday values, sub-index decomposition.

Research

Methodology papers

View all research

AURA-PUI: a prediction-market-derived index of U.S. economic policy uncertainty

Version 1.0 · 2026

AURA-FED: distributional uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy outcomes

2026